Posted by
Dingo on Tuesday, August 07, 2007 12:29:28 PM
Although not a John McCain guy myself, earlier on I thought he would almost assuredly win the GOP nomination.
Rudy Giuliani was too liberal on social issues and too hard edged in personality to win. He also is too easily identified as an ethnic New Yorker, and has all those marriage problems. And Mitt Romney had the Mormon problem (which doesn't bother me, but seems to bother other people) and his endless flip flopping (immigration, abortion, gay marriage, etc.) - both of which hamper him. Further, he always comes across as a little too suave and charismatic - he seems almost like a robot candidate, too perfect to be true.
Compared to these two, I thought McCain would get the social conservatives as a social conservative, get the economic conservatives as an economic conservative, and get the establishment as the "next in line."
Now I tend to doubt McCain will win. On seemingly every issue, McCain continues to attack various Republican subgroups that might actually vote for him if only he would treat them with some respect. He refuses to go to CPAC; the only major Republican to do so. He picks pointless fights with prominent conservatives like Grover Norquist. He proudly mentions the campaign finance bill during the debates, when he should downplay it. And, he parachutes into the immigration legislation to take credit for it, when it was well known that most of the base would hate the plan and that the compromise negotiations were actually led by other Senators (AND NOT MCCAIN!) The smart move would have been to sign on later, and try to avoid the issue.
And now he has no money. IMAGINE THAT - doing all the things I mentioned before actually makes it hard for you to win the support of Republican donors? Who would have thought!
I strongly suspect that Fred Thompson is going to be the primary beneficiary of McCain's eager desire to shoot himself in the foot. (Sorry, I just don't buy into the Romney spin - the guy is doing well because he is the only man on the air in those early states - this will change.)