Thanks to info found on Hugh Hewitt's blog about Rep. Boyda and about Rep. Space, I am now more optimistic about the GOP taking back the House in 2008.

As Tom Davis has stated before, the normal "snap-back" after a wave election is five to ten seats.  (In 1996, the Dems won back nine seats.)  Therefore, if the normal snap-back is met, this would, at the maximum range, still leave the Republicans five seats short.  Thus, they need to put in play more than this normal range of numbers to win back the House.

For this reason, it is comforting to hear about freshmen like Zack Space and Nancy Boyda.  Although I am concerned that the GOP is not united to take on these Dems (stand down Ryun, you blew a race you shouldn't have lost in 2006) it is good to see that the Dems haven't put into office extremely strong candidates in these Republican districts.

For example, Boyda has also refused to take the Democratic money available to her under their ROMP-like program.  While she will no doubt point to this as a positive, i.e., her refusing to kowtow to the Dem leadership, in reality this is a silly move that simply denies her needed money without giving her much "indy cred" in the election.

Other weak Dem incumbents include Tim Mahoney (I told everyone I don't like my job in Congress), Steve Kagen (I acted like a child and threatened Karl Rove while he was in the bathroom), and Carol Shea-Porter (I called up my constituents after they criticised me and berated them).  Each one of these people needs to be pounded by conservative independent groups until the election.  (Don't whine to me about being positive - this doesn't work in American elections).  If each of these guys lose, including Boyda and Space, the GOP will only need nine more seats to win back control.

Other freshmen Dems worth zeroing in on include Nick Lampson, who isn't really a freshman and is actually a strong candidate but represents such a strong Republican district; Baron Hill, who also isn't a real freshman but represents a tough district and faces a strong challenger; Chris Carney, who is a strong candidate but holds a strong Republican seat; Jason Altmire, who unexpectantly won and is, by all accounts, a non-entity in a leaning Republican seat; Jerry McEnery, who is an extreme lefty green kook mistake-waiting-to-happen in a strong Republican district; John Hall, who is a former musician one note anti-war candidate in a heavily Republican district facing a millionare opponent (hopefully); and Kristin Gillibrand, who is a strong Dem in a heavily Republican district who also might be facing a millionare opponent.  There are, of course, other Dem freshmen, but those, I think, are actually stronger positioned to win re-election.

Of course, let's not forget about the non-freshmen representing strong Republican districts.  Let's focus on Jim Matheson, Chet Edwards, Jim Marshall, Earl Pomeroy, Christine Herseth-Sandlin, Melissa Bean, and others.  These Dems need to be challenged for empowering a radical defeatist Democratic leadership led by the embarrassing San Francisco liberal Nancy Pelosi. 

BTW, with the exception of personal scandals like those of Don Young and Heather Wilson, I don't think many Republicans have to worry about re-election.  The tough year - 2006 - is past; 2008 can only be better, with the Dems having partial control over government and thus facing some blame.  For all the Dem talking points - we will challenge all GOPers - they are fighting history and logic on this one.  (BTW, does anyone remember Newt Gingrich and the GOP crowing about winning another twenty seats in 1996?  I do; as we can see, such silliness is bipartisan.)  

It is a shame that the Senate continues to be out of reach in 2008.  With Ted Stevens now endangering a safe seat, and with an embarrassing inability of the GOP to entice Republicans in heavily Republican states like Montana and South Dakota to run against Dems, it seems likely that the only question is how many seats can the GOP lose.  Before Stevens, I thought one or two (Louisiana should switch Republican); now we are looking worse. 

PS: BTW, how bad is it that in states like Michigan and Iowa, the GOP is also not fielding a strong challenger?  In Iowa, Harkin has never won big, is an extreme liberal, and the GOP has two Congressmen, plus a former one and a former Governor, all of whom could give Harkin a race.  And in Michigan, apparently the two GOP minor statewide officials, Representatives Hoekstra and Candice Miller (also a former state wide official), and former Governor candidate Dick Devos ALL want to run for governor four years from now, even though only one of them can actually win that election.  Logic would seem to dictate that one of them might want to run for Senate instead, where at least they would have a better chance of winning the nomination.  And Levin is not unbeatable; I actually think he is very overrated.

PS 2: I still think we hold onto the Presidency, since the Dems are going to nominate Hillary, perhaps one of the most annoying candidates to the swing voters, against our choice of F.Thompson - Rudy - Romney - McCain.